Noah Smith, Noahpinion, Of brains and balls: Nassim Taleb’s macro bets, here.
Nassim Taleb is a vulgar bombastic windbag, and I like him a lot. His books do a good job of explaining some deep, important finance ideas for a general audience. He has helped popularize the notion of “skin in the game“. His trolling of economists is also good for some lulz (I particularly enjoyed his coinage of the term “macrobullshitters“).
However, Taleb has a tendency to indulge in a little macrobullshitting of his own. In February of 2010, he advised everyone in the world to short Treasuries: